Turkey could be upstaged by other meats this Thanksgiving: CoBank

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Dive Brief:

• Turkey could be losing its monopoly on Thanksgiving as demand for the poultry item faces long-term decline and consumers consider other protein options like beef and pork, according to a report released by CoBank this month.
• While the overall turkey supply is down by 100 million pounds this year compared to 2018, inventories of the birds are up 4% compared to the same time last year. Prices for turkey at grocers this year may be lower as a result, the cooperative bank’s report said.
• Retail turkey consumption hit a 43-year low last holiday season, while turkey production costs have stayed elevated since early 2023 amid bird flu outbreaks and high feed prices.

Dive Insight:

Turkey has long been seen as the centerpiece of a Thanksgiving meal table, but a mix of supply and demand factors and continued inflationary pressures hitting consumers are calling its future as the star into question.

Frozen turkeys were also featured 36% less in retail advertisements since 2018, according to USDA data cited in the report, indicating demand for the item may have leveled off. The price of turkey declined by 2.3% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

As CoBank’s report noted, turkey is often a “loss-leader” for grocers, which set the bird at a lower price in hopes the consumer will purchase more items on the same trip.

Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist at CoBank, said in the report many consumers only cook one turkey a year on Thanksgiving, so abandoning the item creates a vacuum for other protein options to fill its place. But the analyst noted that while whole bird turkey is not growing its sales, ground turkey volumes increased 5.5% compared to 2023, according to Circana data.

“Ground turkey is the second-largest ground category, only behind ground beef. This strongly suggests that while the traditional imagery of turkey may be Norman Rockwell’s iconic ‘freedom from want’ painting, the U.S. consumer perception of turkey is changing,” said Earnest.

Turkey producers are still optimistic about their outlook for the holiday this year. In a report released earlier this fall, Butterball found 87% of Thanksgiving hosts expect to serve a turkey this year, and 86% of consumers plan to celebrate the holiday, with an average meal attendance of nine people.